Time-Basic Choice Making.


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Time-Basic Choice Making The Mars Express Experience The Presentation Why study Mars Express? Choice making in Gatherings: Hypothesis Choice hypothesis connected to Mars Express Investigation and Discourse Conclusions and Proposals Further Research Themes Research Goals
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Time-Critical Decision Making The Mars Express Experience

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The Presentation Why study Mars Express? Choice making in Groups: Theory Decision hypothesis connected to Mars Express Analysis and Discussion Conclusions & Recommendations Further Research Topics SpaceOps Montreal

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Research Objectives Improve consciousness of choice hypothesis Understand the choice procedure Identify key choice biasing variables Methods to moderate against these elements Identify points for further research Complete my MBA proposition  SpaceOps Montreal

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The Mars Express Mission First ESA flexi-mission acquirement Fast, Cheap and … in the Spotlight! In the first place ESA between planetary mission to fly (intended to be the second!) Five Phases in one Mission Mars Capture @ 02.51 UTC 25 Dec 03 ... on the other hand rename the mission “Jupiter Express” SpaceOps Montreal

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Decisions: Rationality & Heuristics Pre-program choices in operations utilizing techniques and mission guidelines Minimize assets tied-up in choice making Rational expectations: genuine choices Compromised by flawed learning, and… Human feeling, inclination and judgment Coping with Complexity Heuristics: “rules of thumb” = mental models choice result in light of appraisals of likelihood are influenced by judgmental predisposition SpaceOps Montreal

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Managing choices in Groups Factors because of Group choice making “Local rationalities” – bunch organization? “Risky-shift” – dispersion of obligation Mobilization of inclination – association: culture and principles Management variables Uncertainty shirking Incrementalism Avoid long haul irreversible choices! SpaceOps Montreal

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Judgment under Uncertainty Representativeness Heuristic Tend to fit information to a current mental model: “Law of Small numbers” Availability Heuristic Retrievability of comparative cases Bias of believability: possible occasion? Change and Anchoring Insufficient amendment when likelihood appraisal in view of an introductory quality SpaceOps Montreal

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Research Methodology Time-basic choices generally associated with shuttle inconsistencies Anomaly survey (MRB) minutes used to evaluate how choices may be influenced by biasing elements Identify key choice components which influence the most choices Identify successful alleviating measures SpaceOps Montreal

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Key Decision Factors SpaceOps Montreal

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Analysis of Results complex oddity + discriminating choice =>more choice variables become an integral factor Analysis is constrained to recognizing which choice elements could influence the result Each oddity audit evaluated as one coordinated choice Mitigating strategies present in choice procedure and formalization SpaceOps Montreal

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Mitigating Decision Risks Group-choice impacts: contribution, authoritative society, bargain! Administration: occasional choice reassessment, choice procedure formalism Availability heuristic: information access Representativeness: organization master survey of models and examination Adjustment/Anchoring: watchful utilization of verifiable information, master audit SpaceOps Montreal

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Conclusions, Further Research One silly choice could end a mission: choice inclination variables are discriminating! Hierarchical & administration familiarity with choice variables “Lessons learned”: incorporate choices that were influenced by predisposition elements: how & why Improve, refine relief of choice inclination Comparison with different fields of choice making in operational

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