Vista Grande Canal Water Diversion Project Review of Analytic Techniques John Plummer February 2006Slide 2
Goals we as a whole concur upon: Restore Lake Merced Conserve crisp water Protect general wellbeingSlide 3
Question: Did augmentations of Vista Grande water into Lake Merced add to a detectable increment in contaminants: E-coli microbes Various metals We will investigate the E-coli informationSlide 4
"The essential objective was to figure out if the redirection of restricted volumes of treated stormwater (around 0.1 to 3.6 million liters for every tempest occasion) expanded centralizations of bacterial pointers of fecal tainting in South Lake Merced. Such increments would demonstrate the potential for expanded human wellbeing hazard (i.e., contracting gastrointestinal infection) amid entertainment in the lake." EOA last report, Oct. 2005:Slide 5
EOA\'s decision: "Geometric mean E. coli fixations at most lake test stations were higher after redirection occasions than foundation storm occasions, however the distinctions were not measurably huge."Slide 6
Design of the review: Water from Vista Grande Canal cleaned utilizing CDS During six tempests water discharged on riparian cushion, three tempests with no discharge Measurements taken at six example focusesSlide 7
Analytic approach The specialists assessed this information utilizing a Student t-test. Information for tempests with preoccupations were contrasted and those without redirections. Each specimen site was assessed autonomously. A likelihood > 0.05 was considered factually immaterial.Slide 8
First, we analyze the information for Site 2Slide 9
Ooops! What about site #5?Slide 10
So, what is Plummer\'s issue? "Infrequently a fledgling confounds the part of the invalid speculations, feeling that inability to reject it is identical to demonstrating it." JMP Statistics and Graphics Guide, Version 3.1 SAS Institute, Inc., 1995, pg. 265Slide 11
What is the \'invalid theory\'? We accept that no detectable effect has happened therefore of the redirection. We dismiss that supposition if, and just if, the probability that it is right is short of what one in twenty. This is not a moderate presumption given our settled upon objectives.Slide 12
What would it be advisable for us to do? We ought to expect that there is an effect, and reject that presumption just in the event that it is far-fetched. There is, as opposed to the exhortation of the EOA build, no immediate trial of this theory. Rather we consider the force of the first test.Slide 13
What is the "power" of a test? The power parallels one short Beta, the likelihood of a \'Sort II\' blunder. A Type II mistake happens when we say there is no effect when in certainty there is an effect. For Site #5 the force of the test is 0.18, the likelihood of a Type II mistake is 0.82!Slide 14
Why assess each site independently? This is one way to deal with evacuating change because of area. Despite the fact that not a decent approach! In any case, is there any site-to-site fluctuation to consider? No. Balanced r 2 = - 0.045.Slide 15
We see a clearer relationship by normalizing the information by tempest We standardize the information by setting the mean of each tempest to 0, sexually transmitted disease dev to 1 We likewise consider just information from redirection occasions Site 4 seems, by all accounts, to be an exception Adjusted r 2 = 0.281.Slide 16
Analyzing each site independently lessens the affectability of the t-test The distinction between the methods is not diminished, Also, the changes continue as before, But rather the degrees of flexibility is significantly decreased.Slide 17
There is, nonetheless, a critical distinction between tempest occasions.Slide 18
We need to assess the segments of the difference. The aggregate difference = Variance because of the preoccupation, in addition to Variance because of tempest occasions, in addition to Variance because of examining site, in addition to An irregular term.Slide 19
This is known as a "settled ANOVA" Site is settled inside tempest occasion which thus is settled inside preoccupation amass. Since there is no huge commitment to fluctuation because of site we can utilize that information as various examples for each tempest occasion.Slide 20
We first record for the difference because of tempest occasion. Synopsis insights: F-proportion = 13.4, Prob. < 0.0001 Power = 1.0Slide 21
We then consider the impact of Diversion on the rest of the fluctuation. Outline measurements F-proportion = 5.45, Prob. = 0.024 Power = 0.63.Slide 22
The subsequent model effectively clarifies 63.3% of the change. Outline insights F-proportion = 12.43, Prob. < 0.0001 Power = 1.0 R-square = 0.633Slide 23
Several parts of this work, notwithstanding the factual investigation, are very alarming. There was an inclination to limit the significance of wellbeing concerns. There was an absence of recognition with the employments of the lake. Extra inadequacy in information taking care of biases the outcomes. I will portray a few, yet not endeavor to cover all, of these issues.Slide 24
Researchers consistently limit the significance of wellbeing contemplations. " Although the relevance of these water quality criteria to this review is exceptionally faulty, the criteria are preservationist in that full body water contact diversion is disallowed at Lake Merced (SFPUC Resolution No. 10,435)" In actuality that determination forbids swimming, not full body water contact that occurs, but rarely.Slide 25
Potential employments of the lake water are distorted: "Lake Merced … comprises of four between associated bowls (alluded to as South, East, North, and Impound) which fill in as a crisis wellspring of non-consumable water" (Casteel, et. al., August 2005) The PUC has, as of late as 1985, assigned Lake Merced as a crisis wellspring of consumable water, and the RWQCB has assigned the lake as a potential crisis supply of household water.Slide 26
The scientists don\'t surrender effortlessly. "If it\'s not too much trouble take note of that swimming and full body water contact is restricted at Lake Merced." From proposed letter to be sent to boaters portraying this program. This same guidance is presently posted close to the Boathouse.Slide 27
Researchers exaggerated the quality of their investigation. "In view of a "weight-of-confirmation" approach, the review comes about recommended that the pilot preoccupations presumably did not expand potential human wellbeing hazard." Repeating a wrong examination six circumstances, once for each site, does not constitute "weight-of-proof."Slide 28
if there should be an occurrence of uncertainty, figure in favor of the specialists! "The connected report arranged by Michael J. Casteel, Ph.D. (SFPUC Research Microbiologist) gives documentation that the riparian cradle is probably going to give some level of treatment ." (Emphasis included) This report archives fruitful utilization of a riparian cushion in Louisiana. It\'s an it of an extend to expect a similar thing will occur at Lake Merced.Slide 29
Metals just vanished: " various physical, organic and substance forms conceivably administer the destiny of metals in the stormwater spillover occupied to the riparian cushion/lake. Such potential procedures incorporate collection in the riparian cushion soils, expulsion by natural take-up in the support or the lake, and adsorption to particles in the lake framework. Changes among types of individual metals are likewise likely." No arrangement is made in the present proposition to find which, assuming any, of these is right.Slide 30
The extent of the review blocks more definite examination: Question: " There is some postponement between a tempest occasion and the conveyance of treated stormwater to the test site. No examination is displayed showing how much the ground has turned out to be immersed amid this interim. How much water does the support ingest? How much keeps running off straightforwardly into the lake?" Answer: " Additional building investigation would be expected to address this issue. Such examination was past the extent of the pilot think about."Slide 31
We all concur, better observing is required: "We do concur that any future increments in preoccupation volume would require watchful checking. Before any extra preoccupations to the lake happen, we will painstakingly plan and archive extra checking exercises." Unfortunately, the present proposition does exclude huge change in the observing system.Slide 32
Convenience is by all accounts the main component building up test outline. "Tests will be gathered from the lake around 1 to 3 days after a preoccupation occasion is started." No method of reasoning to bolster this planning is given. It is likely that is "outside the degree" of this review too.Slide 33
Recreational action was seen amid school hours:Slide 34
On the other hand, maybe the scientists didn\'t know that St. Ignatius Rowing Club has their inside at the lake.Slide 35
The scientists expect away factual challenges: "It is sensible to accept the basic populace appropriation is lognormal." Before testing for ordinariness one needs to set up that the information are taken from a homogenous populace. Clearly that is not the situation here, as the informational index is stratified by occasion.Slide 36
Data dealing with served the interests of the analysts, not great insights. Information for 1/27/05 fell outside the scope of the screen: The specialists said the information were great, that the qualities were accounted for as under 100. Notwithstanding, in the computations they utilized 100.Slide 37
Does it matter? Yes, it does.Slide 38
The specialists are totally happy with their strategies: "Reaction: Different measurable techniques may yield diverse outcomes. We have not endeavored to assess the above techniques, but rather we trust that our strategies were proper." Maybe there is some little possibility, however remote, that some time or another there might really be something to learn! In any, dislike this.Slide 39
The analysts exhibit a stunning idealism: " What is truly demonstrated is that there is a rough 98.5% probab
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