What are the Adapted Actualities that we may would like to clarify in building an econometric model of the car business?.


139 views
Uploaded on:
Category: Product / Service
Description
What are the Adapted Realities that we may would like to clarify in building an econometric model of the car business? Industry Attributes U. S. Industry Retail Conveyances (a large number of units) Years Finished December 31,
Transcripts
Slide 1

What are the Stylized Facts that we may plan to clarify in building an econometric model of the car business?

Slide 3

Industry Characteristics U. S. Industry Retail Deliveries (a large number of units) Years Ended December 31, - - - 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 - - Cars……………………………… 8.7 8.2 8.3 8.6 Trucks………………………… 8.7 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.5 - Total............ 17.4 16.0 15.5 15.1 ====

Slide 4

Industry Characteristics The productivity of vehicle deals is influenced by numerous elements, including the accompanying (Ford’s Perspective): Unit deals volume The blend of vehicles and choices sold The edge of benefit on every vehicle sold The level of "incentives" (cost rebates) and other marketing expenses The expenses for client guarantee claims and other client satisfaction activities The expenses for government-commanded security, outflow and fuel economy Technology and gear The capacity to oversee costs The capacity to recuperate expense increments through higher costs

Slide 5

U.S. Auto Market Shares* - - - - Years Ended December 31, - - - - 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Ford**........... 19.9% 20.4% 20.8% 21.6% 21.9% General Motors... 29.3 29.8 32.2 32.3 33.9 DaimlerChrysler*** 10.3 10.7 10.2 10.9 10.0 Toyota............ 10.2 10.6 9.9 9.3 9.2 Honda............. 9.8 10.6 10.0 9.2 8.6 Nissan............ 4.6 5.0 5.7 5.9 6.0 All Other****..... 15.9 12.9 11.2 10.8 10.4 - - Total U.S. Auto Retail Deliveries 100.0% U.S. Truck Market Shares* - - - - Years Ended December 31, - - - - 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Ford............. 28.2% 30.2% 31.1% 31.9% General Motors... 27.8 27.5 28.8 29.0 29.9 DaimlerChrysler*** 22.2 23.2 21.9 23.4 21.3 Toyota............ 6.7 6.3 5.7 5.3 4.5 Honda.............. 2.6 1.9 1.5 0.8 Nissan............. 3.2 2.7 3.6 3.9 All Other****...... 9.3 8.2 7.4 6.8 7.7 - - Total U.S. Truck Retail Deliveries 100.0%

Slide 6

U.S. Joined Car and Truck Market Shares* - - - - Years Ended December 31, - - - - 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Ford**............ 24.1% 25.2% 25.6% 25.8% 26.2% General Motors.... 28.5 28.7 30.6 30.8 32.2 DaimlerChrysler*** 16.3 16.8 15.6 16.5 14.8 Toyota............ 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.2 Honda............. 6.2 6.3 6.0 5.5 5.3 Nissan............ 3.9 4.7 4.8 5.1 All Other****..... 12.5 10.6 9.6 9.1 9.2 - - Total U.S. Auto and Truck Retail Deliveries 100.0% TABLE NOTES * All U.S. retail deals information depend on openly accessible data from the media and exchange productions. ** Ford obtained Volvo Car on March 31, 1999. The figures appeared here incorporate Volvo Car on an expert forma premise for the periods before its procurement by Ford. Amid the period from 1995 through 1998, Volvo Car spoke to close to 1.2 rate purposes of aggregate piece of the pie amid any one year. *** Chrysler and Daimler-Benz converged in late 1998. The figures appeared here join Chrysler and Daimler-Benz (barring Freightliner and Sterling Heavy Trucks) on a genius forma premise for the periods before their merger. **** "All Other" incorporates principally organizations situated in different European nations and in Korea. The increment in consolidated piece of the pie appeared for "All Others" reflects fundamentally increments in piece of the overall industry for Volkswagen AG and the Korean producers.

Slide 7

Herfindahl Index - Based on 1999 U.S. Joined Car & Truck Market General Motors: 0.285 Ford: 0.241 DaimlerChrysler: 0.163 Toyota: 0.085 Honda: 0.062 HI (main 5 standardized on 79%) = 2743.79 When the HI surpasses 1,800 the business is more focused and less contention exists. Firms in the same business endeavoring to consolidate by and large will be tested by the Justice Department when the HI will surpass 1800. Main Four Firms Concentration: 72.8%

Slide 8

U.S. Industry Vehicle Sales by Segment - - - - Years Ended December 31, - - - - 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 CARS Small............... 16.1% 16.9% 18.1% 19.1% 19.6% Middle.............. 23.7 23.6 24.7 25.6 26.4 Large............... 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.3 Luxury.............. 7.1 6.7 6.8 - - Total U.S. Industry Car Sales.......... 49.9 51.0 53.4 55.3 57.1 TRUCKS Compact Pickup...... 6.2% 6.7 6.4 6.2 6.8 Compact Bus/Van/Utility 22.1 21.1 20.0 19.0 18.0 Full-Size Pickup.... 12.7 12.4 12.0 12.6 11.5 Full-Size Bus/Van/Utility 6.5 6.1 5.0 4.4 Medium/Heavy........ 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.2 - - Total U.S. Industry Truck Sales....... 50.1 49.0 46.6 44.7 42.9 Total U.S. Industry Vehicle Sales..... 100.0%

Slide 11

How Might Gasoline Efficiency Be Modeled? Structure D y n = y n - y n-1 = k*(M - y n-1 ) y n-1 Change in Gasoline Efficiency (GE) D GE n = GE n - GE n-1 = k*(M - GE n-1 ) GE n-1 where M = 22 miles for each gallon and OLS est. k = 0.004

Slide 12

Change in Gasoline Efficiency (GE) D GE t = 0.004*(22 - GE t-1 ) GE t-1 or, GE t = [0.004*(22 - GE t-1 ) GE t-1 ] GE t-1

Slide 14

This sort of variable may be more helpful to clarify portion request instead of general interest.

Slide 15

1960s = 85.1% 1970s = 80.3 1980s = 71.8 1990s = 75.9

Slide 19

Stylized Facts about U.S. Engine Vehicle Industry Product interest is repeating. Item is sturdy and normal holding period has increased. Industry has stock. Industry has high overhead cost structure with high obstructions of section Industry structure is as an oligopoly with a movement towards considerably more noteworthy focus. Shopper interest controlled with renting, incentives and other financing bundles.

Slide 20

Basic Formulation: Motor Vehicle Sales Growth Ordinary Least Squares MONTHLY information for 266 periods from JAN 1978 to FEB 2000 sm6( engine ) = 1.56866 * sm6( mydp96 [-2] ) - 0.60088 * sm6( custseta01 [-1] ) (3.84854) (1.57140) + 0.46759 * sm6( relcarprice [-1] ) - 1.32058 * mf1405 [-1] + 7.07891 (3.86749) (3.75933) (2.90520) Sum Sq 43613.8 Std Err 12.9268 LHS Mean 1.5324 R Sq 0.1907 R Bar Sq 0.1783 F 4,261 15.3738 D.W.( 1) 1.2616 D.W.(12) 1.7468 Note: SM6 is a rate change recipe = (((x/((1/12)*(x.1+x.2+x.3+x.4+x.5+x.6+x.7+x.8+x.9+x.10+x.11+x.12)))** (12/6.5)- 1)*100.

Slide 22

Converting Back to Level Terms

Slide 23

Table 1 - Elasticities of Motor Vehicle Demand Income Car Price New Equation 1.57 - 0.60 Commerce Dept.* 1.56 - 1.11 * 1970-1982

Slide 24

Motor Vehicles Consumption Equation from QUEST University of Maryland’s Econometric Model cdmvpc$ is per capita utilization of engine vehicles in consistent dollars = cdmv$/pop cR is Personal utilization in genuine terms; pop is populace cRpc = cR/pop Create ypcR, genuine extra cash per capita Price pidisaR = pidisa/cD ypcR = pidisaR/pop dypcR = ypcR - ypcR[1] DEFINE Interest rate * ypcR to speak to credit conditions rtbXypc = .01*rtb*ypcR DEFINE Motor Vehicle wear out variable by gath

Recommended
View more...