Wildernesses Without bounds Strategies, Psychos and Huge Change.


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Talk paper - does not speak to the US's perspectives Government ... Examination paper - does not speak to the US's perspectives Government ...
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Boondocks of the Future Methods, Madmen and Massive Change A Presentation for the National Intelligence Council by Theodore Gordon November 6, 2003 The perspectives communicated in this and different papers connected with the NIC 2020 venture are those of individual members. They are posted for examination purposes just and don\'t speak to the perspectives of the US Government.

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The Millennium Project American Council for the United Nations University Established in 1996, following a 3 year plausibility study Accumulative investigation of progress, recognizable proof of worldwide issues, treatments, procedures 19 Nodes, 1500 members from 50 nations Used by and subsidized by a wide scope of organizations for new bits of knowledge into worldwide difficulties Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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The Evolution of Future Studies State of the Future Index Agent Models Complexity: Chaos, Adaptive Models Normative Visions National Foresight Studies Scenarios; Look Out Panels Model Building: Econometrics, Systems Expert Studies: RAND and Delphi Games Genius Forecasting; Malthus,, Wells, Freud, Kahn Newton: The Clockwork Universe Utopias Fortune Telling Necromancy Entrails Astrology Revelation Inspiration Determinism Reductionism Permutation Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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The S&T Management Study Year 1: What are the essential science questions? What are a few answers? Strategy: Attaché gatherings and 2 round surveys Year 2: Implications of the main year\'s outcomes for S&T administration. Strategy: Policy-creator interviews Year 3: Create situations to make the approach outcomes unequivocal. Technique: Scenarios; 2 round polls Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Some Key S&T Questions How can S&T enhance the human condition? What research has the best potential dangers? What are some original exploratory improvements? What calamities can science stay away from? In what capacity can science turn into a more critical piece of choice process? How can interdisciplinary examination be strengthened? How can moral outcomes be all the more completely considered in S&T administration? Exchange paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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How can S&T enhance the human condition? Significance Likelihood Cheap, productive, considerate, non-atomic splitting and non-fossil fuel. 4.38 2.98 Simple, modest, successful meds and conveyance frameworks 4.27 3.48 Improving the effectiveness of water use in farming by 75%. 4.21 3.44 Climate change - comprehension and arrangements. 4.18 3.12 Improvements in early discovery and following of pandemics. 4.07 3.78 Cheap, productive, implies for giving consumable water from salt water 4.01 3.31 Techniques for enhancing waste water treatment, town sanitation. 3.91 3.54 Preserving organic and social differing qualities. 3.90 2.86 Techniques for enhancing horticulture, nourishments, ranger service, and animals 3.84 3.58 Providing cheap medicinal treatment for needy individuals. 3.81 2.97 Advanced calculation and computerized reasoning. 3.62 3.93 Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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What research has the best potential dangers? Significance Likelihood Released hereditarily adjusted creatures . 4.28 3.31 Use of biotechnology to construct new sorts of organic WMD 4.16 3.61 Nanotechnology weapons for slaughtering extensive quantities of individuals. 3.88 3.04 Loss of biodiversity from promoting methodologies that energize hereditarily changed assortments. 3.83 3.51 Intelligent nanotechnology advancing outside human ability to control. 3.74 2.36 Release of substances with long haul hormonal or hereditary impacts. 3.74 3.38 More modern military weaponry. 3.70 3.84 Internet spread of conceivably perilous advancements. 3.70 4.16 Commercial utilization of human genome data in previously established inclination change of substantial cells to accomplish certain physical or behavioral attributes of the kid and grown-up. 3.63 3.41 Super clever and strong PC infections/Cyber fear mongering. 3.59 3.70 Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Below Some Radars Improving aggregate knowledge and diminishing hostile to social conduct. Mental/sociobiological examination on fierce conduct Developing a science and innovation of administration. Custom fitted psychotropes. Expanded private segment control of innovative work. Fundamentally better comprehension of quantum marvels. Human limb recovery. The "final theory" connecting quantum material science and relativity. Human-PC advantageous interaction, cerebrum supporters. Microprobes that can be conveyed in amazing situations. Expanded utilization of non-rocket method for minimal effort space drive. Adjusting genomes to make new or resuscitate old species. Discourse paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Sources of Acceleration Building on earlier work Communications Synergy Instrumentation Globalization Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Synergy Smart machines Tiny robots Swarm machine Future: Computers as little as neural connections A nuclear scale universally useful get together machine could duplicate itself in a week; a billion in a year So, our "mind children" will think and replicate, and advance themselves. (Minsky) Nanotech Cognitive Science Food Tiny PCs Smart chips wherever Eyes and ears wherever Implantable screens Computers Understanding personality, mind Brain prosthesis True AI Improved decisionmaking Cosmetics Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Controlling S&T Risks: Two Schools of Thought Regulations drives examine underground or different nations. Controllers can\'t stay aware of advances. Instruct and prepare researchers in morals and self-oversee dangers. Size of effects requires worldwide frameworks to survey dangers Design directions and authorize assentions Dangers are worldwide; control must be worldwide. A few dangers ought to be banned, others, controlled Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Four Scenarios Centralization Public Support Functioning Of Regulation Of Science of Regulation S&T Speed Scenario High Low Pro Anti Works Fails Accel As now 1. S&T Develops a Mind of Its Own X 2. The World Wakes Up X 3 Please Turn off the Spigot. X 4. Backfire X Discussion paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Scenario 1: S&T Develops a Mind of its Own: The rate of investigative disclosures and progressed mechanical applications detonates. A worldwide science/social input framework is grinding away: science makes individuals more quick witted more quick witted individuals improve and quicker science. Better and speedier science opens new ways to revelation new entryways lead to collaborations and illuminating of old detours. Evacuating the detours makes new science that makes individuals more astute. S&T moves so quick government and worldwide directions are left in the dust. Thus it goes. Exchange paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Scenario 2 The World Wakes Up The homicide of 25 million individuals in the mid-2010s by the self-broadcasted Agent of God who made the hereditarily changed Congo infection, at long last woke up the world to the acknowledgment that an individual acting alone could make and utilize a weapon of mass obliteration. This wonder got to be known as SIMAD-Single Individual, Massively Destructive Regulatory organizations and instruments were established to control the science and innovation related threats that got to be evident. Training was a major part of the answer, however interfacing the instructive frameworks with the security frameworks is exasperating to a few people. By the by, individual demonstrations of mass devastation so far have been averted. Global and government directions have figured out how to deal with the S&T venture. Talk paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Scenario 3 Please Turn off the Spigot Science is assaulted as bombastic and overconfident, as empowering abundances in utilization, raising false trusts, and most exceedingly bad startling results that can devastate all of us. Especially troubling was coincidentally or deliberately discharged hereditarily changed life forms and the potential for weapons of mass annihilation. The poor were overlooked. A science master emerged to electrify people in general. A worldwide commission was built up however fizzled as a result of debasement. In any case, another commission is by all accounts working. Worldwide control at last works. Dialog paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Scenario 4 Backlash Control is low and science moves quick, yet negative results cause open caution. The brilliant period of science is advertised by the media, yet everything ends up being a delusion. Probably the most esteemed disclosures and new capacities have a drawback and amazements proliferate. Fear based oppressors exploit some of these deficiencies. The level of concern rises and the media, once the companion of science, now assault it. Hordes structure before college and government research labs, as they once did in dissent over globalization. Direction falls flat. Progress slows down, neediness keeps developing. Money saving advantage and quantitative investigation neglects to convey rationale to direction. Exchange paper - does not speak to the perspectives of the US Government

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Novel Scenario Concepts Rise of neo-McCarthyism in science Scientist\'s Oath Nanotech infections "Off switches": nano and genome Policies for control of distribution of unsafe exploration discoveries Principles of Inviolability of Science self-sufficiency Telomerase dispersal as a weapon Public support in S&T faces off regarding UN Security Council mediates in S&

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