Overview of MAC’s Surveys / Data Sources Pierre A. Lanciault National Manager, Housing Market Surveys Market Analysis Centre (CMHC) April 26, 2010 Duration: 30 minutes
Presentation Summary • Overview of the Market Analysis Centre (MAC) • MAC’s Surveys in a Nutshell • Starts & Completions Survey (SCS) and Market Absorption Survey (MAS) • Rental Market Surveys (RMS) • Other Surveys… • Other Data Sources… • Miscellaneous • Questions and Answers
Overview of MAC • General description • Market Analysis Centre (MAC) is responsible for collecting / analyzing data and disseminating the results (to internal and external clients). • MAC has close to 120 permanent employees divided between the Regions and the National Office. • MAC has three functions: Surveys, Business / IT and Economic Analysis. • Main activities • Various housing market surveys • Development of tools and systems • Publication of data, analyses and forecasts
MAC’s Surveys in a Nutshell • Current surveys • Starts & Completions Survey (SCS) • Market Absorption Survey (MAS) • Rental Market Surveys (RMS) • Seniors’ Housing Surveys (SHS) • Secondary Rental Market Surveys: 3 components • Renovation & Home Purchase Survey (RHPS) • Other surveys • New Home Sale Survey (NHSS) - as a pilot - • Conventional Lenders’ Survey (CLS) • Different special surveys (national or regional) often in the form of research projects
Construction Surveys – 1 • General description – SCS and MAS • Objective: Monitor activities associated with new residential constructions • Three steps: start (“foundation”), completion (“finished construction”) and absorption (“inhabited dwelling”) • Categorization by housing type (e.g. single) and by intended market (e.g. rental) • Enumeration in person or through contacts • This is a census, not a survey (no sampling… except in rural areas). • Certain aspects are not covered: conversions (e.g. condominiums), multi-purpose buildings, etc.
Construction Surveys – 2 • Geographic coverage • All centres with 50,000+ inhabitants: census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs) • Vast majority of centres with 10,000 to 49,999 inhabitants (with some exceptions) • Reserves are not covered (BC is an exception). • All the rest… rural areas (modelled by sampling in five strata for the province overall) • Time coverage • 50,000+ inhabitants (and exceptions): monthly • 10,000 to 49,999 inhabitants and rural: quarterly
Construction Surveys – 3 • Operational approach • Receipt of building permits from the different municipalities (through an agreement with StatCan) • Initial visit to verify the presence of a foundation • Contact with builders… data collection • Monthly (or quarterly) visits to monitor construction stages (data update) • Other characteristics • MAS is conducted in 50,000+ centres (+ exceptions). • Automatic completion in centres with 10,000 to 49,999 inhabitants • Data, results and analyses are produced for all centres with 10,000 or more inhabitants.
Rental Market Survey – 1 • General description – RMS • Objective: Monitor the state of the rental market in Canada twice a year (October and April) • Statistics sought: vacancy rates, availability rates and rents (also some data on the universe) • RMS covers all private structures (apartments and row / town houses) with three or more unit. • Characterization by bedroom type and by structure size (e.g. 50 units +) • Universe comprises more than 170,000 structures. • Around 40% of structures (70% of units) are included in the sample every October.
Rental Market Survey – 2 • Geographic coverage and sampling • RMS covers all centres with 10,000+ inhabitants (with some exceptions). • Centres with 10,000 to 49,999 inhabitants are enumerated (100% sampled, except in Quebec). • Centres with 50,000+ inhabitants are sampled based on a stratification by geography and structure size (number of units). • All structures with more than 50 units are enumerated (100% sampled). • The basic geographic unit is the census tract. • CMHC has defined “rental zones” based on these census tracts (for results dissemination).
Rental Market Survey – 3 • Operational approach • Continuous updating of the RMS universe (declared final on June 30 and December 31) • Sample selection in August and February • Establishment of a list of contacts (owners, property managers, superintendents, etc.) • Conduct of RMS (physical enumeration) during the first two weeks of October and April • Comprehensive data quality control • Statistical treatments (e.g. weighting) • Data analysis and creation of tables / reports • Availability of final results (usually around mid December and mid June)
Rental Market Survey – 4 • Other characteristics • A Rural RMS (RRMS) is conducted every 5 years (pre-census year) across the country. • Conducted upon request from CMHC’s Research • Division • Some regions conduct sporadic RRMS for internal purposes (mainly BC and Atlantic). • All results / data released must meet a stringent statistical validation (CVs are published with the data). • Availability rate may be considered problematic in Quebec (because of “July 1st”). • Quebec has, by far, the largest rental housing stock in Canada (structure wise).
Other Surveys - 1 • Seniors’ Housing Survey (SHS) • The SHS targets private or non-profit residences • Majority of residents are 65+ year old • Residences must provide on-site meal plan. • Heavy care must not be mandatory. • Residences must have at least 10 units. • The SHS is a census since February 2010 • Survey data is obtained through a combination of telephone, fax and e-mail interviews with owners, managers and residence administrators. • The survey collects rents and vacancy rates by unit type, as well as, other property information such as amenities, utilities, date opened, renovations, etc.
Other Surveys - 2 • Secondary Rental Market Surveys (3 components) • Condo Apartment Vacancy Survey • A census of all apartment condos (some exceptions where a sample of structures is enumerated*) • Conducted in September in Montreal*, Quebec, Toronto*, Ottawa, Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver* and Victoria • Key information collected: vacancy rates, rental rates (i.e. % of condos normally rented vs. owned) and condo universe • Data collected at the structure level from property managers, condo boards, etc.
Other Surveys - 3 • Secondary Rental Market Surveys (3 components) • Condo Apartment Rent Survey • A telephone survey of condominium residents who are renting. • Conducted in October in Montreal, Quebec, Toronto, Ottawa, Edmonton, Calgary, Victoria and Vancouver • The goal of this survey is to provide estimates of average rents for condo apartments. • Some information are collected on dwelling and household characteristics. • Conducted by an external consultant using a CATI system.
Other Surveys - 4 • Secondary Rental Market Surveys (3 components) • Household Rent Survey • A random telephone survey of household residents within certain centres. Data are collected from only those who are renting. • Conducted in September in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Quebec, Halifax, Abbotsford, St. John’s, Kelowna, Victoria, Saskatoon, Regina and Barrie • The goal of this survey is to provide estimates of average rents, rental rates and the size of the secondary rental market. • Conducted by an external consultant using a CATI system
Other Surveys - 5 • Renovation & Home Purchase Survey (RHPS) • The RHPS is conducted annually in February-March by an external consultant using a CATI system. • The RHPS is conducted in Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver for all components. • The “actual” Renovation component is conducted in five additional centres: St. John’s, Quebec, Ottawa, Winnipeg and Edmonton. • The survey look at the previous and at the current calendar year (actual data and intentions). • Data collected: types of renovation, renovation expenses, reasons for renovation, first time home buyers, reasons for buying a house, etc.
Other Surveys - 6 • New Home Sale Survey (NHSS) - as a pilot - • The NHSS is conducted in Saint John, Quebec, London, Guelph, Kitchener, Saskatoon, Calgary and Victoria on a monthly basis. • The goal of this survey is to collect new home sale information (price, date of sale, etc.) at the transaction level. • Discontinued as of April 1, 2010… • Conventional Lenders’ Survey • Data on approved loans is collected through a form sent to major banks and other lenders • This survey is conducted exclusively from N.O. on a quarterly basis.
Other Data Sources - 1 • Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) • Data available on a monthly basis: raw dollar volume, unit sales, new listings, average prices, etc. • Geographic coverage / levels: Canada, provinces and local real estate boards. • Seasonally adjusted data is available for most markets. • Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) • Forecasted economic data for the provinces and the CMAs on a quarterly basis (reports and time series) • Data includes labour force, GDP, net migration, personal income, etc.
Other Data Sources - 2 • Statistics Canada • All census data through the Research Division • Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) • All boundary files (GIS): DA, CT, CSD, CA / CMA, province and Canada levels • The most recent street network file (SNF) • Building Permits from the municipalities through an agreement with Statistics Canada • Geographic Information System (GIS) • All structures (almost 2,000,000) from SCS / MAS since 1989 have been geocoded to a point. • All structures (more than 170,000) from the RMS have been geocoded to a point.
Miscellaneous • Data accessibility • MAC produces and disseminates several analytical / statistical reports for free on CMHC’s website: Housing Now, Housing Market Outlook, Rental Market Report, Housing Information Monthly, etc. • CMHC’s time series • Ad hoc request through SAS and other tools • MAC’s Data Release Guidelines • Access to individual records is limited to MAC Surveys. • Special tools have been / will be developed to provide aggregated data at different geographic levels. • Confidentiality and data quality / reliability are the main two concerns for MAC.