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"Crest Oil"

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  1. “Peak Oil” – It’s coming Dave Kilsby ASPO Australia

  2. It can’t be ignored

  3. Why does it matter?

  4. Forecast Transport Energy Consumption Growth for AustraliaSource: Energy White Paper 2004

  5. ASPO Australia aims to: • encourage the acknowledgement and study of Peak Oil particularly as it affects Australia • be a source of independent information for businesses, governments and communities • collaborate with other bodies to help prepare and implement relevant policies and strategies • promote awareness of the issue of peak oil and gas

  6. Oil & gas industry Biofuels Indigenous & Remote Communities Agriculture, fisheries & food Finance & economics Urban & transport planning Social services Active transport Construction industry Health sector Defence ASPO Australia Working Groups + working groups for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, WA, SA

  7. How much oil and gas is there? (ASPO 2005 estimate)

  8. What about Australia? Haven’t we got plenty of our own oil? Not for much longer! (Geosciences Australia)

  9. Recent oil price fluctuations

  10. Unreliability of ABARE forecasts

  11. VAMPIRE(Source: Dodson & Sipe, Griffith University,2006)

  12. Alternatives to cars (from Sydney Metro Strategy)

  13. Domestic freight task % moved by mode 1999-2000

  14. Renewables Biofuels Conventional oil Unconventional oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear Hydrogen Alternative transport fuels?

  15. Conclusions • Transport over 40% of final energy use in Australia • Transport heavily dependent on liquid fuels (oil) • The age of cheap oil is almost over • Short-term urgency in planning for post-oil age • More mitigation options in cities than in rural areas

  16. What to do? • Commonwealth to become involved • “Do nothing” not an option • No magic bullet • ASPO Australia advocates • community engagement, individualised marketing, fuel tax escalator, tradeable fuel allocation system • Leadership required • Buy time!

  17. For further information • www.sydneypeakoil.com • Sydney Peak Oil Group • www.aspo-australia.org.au • ASPO Australia • www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat-ctte • over 180 submissions to an Inquiry into oil supply & alternative fuels: …/oil_supply/submissions/sublist.html • www.peakoil.net • ASPO • www.energybulletin.net • (one of many good international sitesfor Peak Oil info)