Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty

1. IMPACT 12th September 2002 1 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes And Uncertainty

2. IMPACT 12th September 2002 2 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT I nvestigation of Extre M e Flood P rocesses A nd Un C ertain T y

3. IMPACT 12th September 2002 3 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty A (brief) Intro

4. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 4 Introduction • The problem to be solved • Scientific objectives and approach • Benefits of the IMPACT project • Implementation

5. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 5 The problem to be solved... “The assessment and reduction of risks from extreme flooding caused by natural events or the failure of dams and flood defence structures” (Structures = dams, weirs, sluices, flood embankments, dikes, tailings dams etc.)

6. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 6 The problem to be solved... “To manage and minimise (flood) risks effectively it is necessary to be able to identify hazards and vulnerability in a consistent and reliable manner, to have good knowledge of structure behaviour in emergency situations, and to understand the potential consequences of failure in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety”

7. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 7 Scientific Objectives & Approach Objectives are to: • Advance scientific knowledge / understanding • Develop predictive tools / methods in four areas:

8. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 8 Scientific Objectives & Approach • Breaching of embankments (dams & flood defences) (WP2) • Flood propagation through valley and urban areas (WP3) • Movement of sediment (WP4) • Quantifying risk and uncertainty (WP5) ( Recommendations from CADAM www.hrwallingford.co.uk/projects/CADAM )

9. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 9 Scientific Objectives & Approach Sediment Movement Flood Propagation Breach Formation Risk Assessment Combined inputs with associated uncertainty demonstrated through case study application Implications for End User Applications

10. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 10 Scientific Objectives & Approach Approach is via a combination of: • Fieldwork • Laboratory physical modelling • Desk analysis • Computational modelling including assessment throughout of process uncertainty

11. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 11 Benefits of the IMPACT Project Ultimately a reduction in risk to the public through: • improved understanding of extreme processes, hence improved understanding of associated risks to the public, environment, assets etc. • improved reliability of modelling tools • improved understanding of modelling results, leading to more appropriate application of predictions (e.g. emergency planning

12. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 12 Key Aspects of Implementation The Overall Approach • Keep focus on overall objectives, end users • Interaction between theme areas: (1 project, not 4)

13. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 13 Key Aspects of Implementation Interaction with European, US and National R&D • Complement and benefit from National R&D • Liase with US R&D programme • Maximise scope and participation of additional organisations wherever possible

14. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 14 Key Aspects of Implementation Dissemination: R&D is pointless unless there is effective dissemination

15. IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 12th September 2002 15 Key Aspects of Implementation Effective dissemination means: • End user take up / application of results – therefore results need to match end user needs! • Dissemination internationally to different user groups: – dam & defence owners / emergency planners / insurance companies / consulting companies / researchers / planners / developers / designers / etc. etc. etc.