Understanding Economic Fluctuations: Recession, Depression, and Growth in Canada

1. Its a recession when your neighbor loses his job, its a depression when you lose yours. Harry Truman Its a recession when your neighbor loses his job, its a depression when you lose yours. Harry Truman

2. Learn about aggregate demand and the factors that will affect it Analyze aggregate supply and the factors that influence it Study the economys equilibrium and how it differs from its potential Examine Canadas historical record of economic growth.

3. What determines the connections among inflation, unemployment, and levels of spending and real output in the Canadian economy? What determines the connections among inflation, unemployment, and levels of spending and real output in the Canadian economy?

4. In the economy as a whole, we see the relationship between the general price level and total spending in the economy, which is known as : Aggregate Demand

5. Aggregate Demand Curve Relationship between the general price level and total spending in the economy expressed on a graph. Relationship between the general price level and total spending in the economy expressed on a graph. 0 650 700 750 800 40 80 120 160 200 Aggregate Demand Curve Real GDP (1997 $ billions) Price Level (GDP deflator, 1997 = 100) Aggregate Demand Schedule Price Level Real GDP (1997, $ billions) Point on Graph 200 160 120 650 700 750 a b c a b c AD

6. Two factors cause the aggregate demand curve to be downward sloping: The wealth effect that higher prices decrease the real value of financial assets and decrease consumption, since households feel poorer than normal. The foreign trade effect means that higher prices decrease exports and increase imports.

7. What causes changes to the aggregate demand?? What causes changes to the aggregate demand??

8. Disposable Income: Consumer spending is the most significant determinant of disposable income in the entire economy. The economys DI changes as a result of population changes, as well as DI/household. Therefore, when DI rises, then there is a rise on consumer spending, adding to total expenditures, and shifting the aggregate demand curve to the right. Wealth : Consists of real (houses and appliances )and financial assets (stocks and bonds). Eg: if the stock prices increase, a person owning some stocks is going to experience a real gain in wealth, resulting in a greater likelihood of spending more of their disposable income. Aggregate demand will increase, and the curve will shift to the right. Consumer Expectations: Consumer expectations influence the demand for products. If there is higher consumer spending then the aggregate demand increases, and aggregate demand curve shifts to the right. Interest Rates: People often buy durable goods, such as cars and furniture, if the real interest rate falls, consumers are more likely to borrow to pay for big items. Consumer spending rises and the Aggregate demand curve shifts to the right.

9. In the investment demand curve, its the relationship between the interest rate and investment and depends on the real rate of return and the real interest rate Business Expectations : If businesses anticipate that profits will increase, the investment demand curve shifts to the right, thereby causing an increase in the aggregate demand. 0 Investment Demand Curve Investment (1997 $ billions) Real Rate of Return and Real Interest Rate (%) 30 60 4 8 12 A B C D a b c D 1 Investment Demand Schedule Real Interest Rate (%) Total Investment (1997 $ billions) Point on Graph Projects Undertaken 12 8 4 0 30 60 a b c -- A, B A, B, C, D

10. If a rise occurs in Government purchases Eg: Highway Construction Aggregate Demand increases Foreign Incomes If incomes increase in foreign countries, then its likely that the citizens of that country will purchase more products as a result their own and those from other countries. Canadian exports increase, thereby increasing Canadas aggregate demand. Exchange Rates Its the value of one nations currency in terms of another currency. The impact of exchange rates on prices, are if the Canadian dollar increases in value, then the net exports fall causing aggregate demand to decrease. While the reverse occurs, when the Canadian dollar drops in value then the net exports rise increasing aggregate demand.

11. Brief Summary

12. Economic Fluctuation Part 2 Aggregate Supply

13. Review -Wealth effect:when the price decrease,household feel richer,then they may buy more,the consumption will increase -Foreign trade effect: lower prices-->increase exports-->decrease imports -Aggregate Demand : the relationship between general price level and total spending in the economy -Aggregate demand factors: C+I+G+Nx = GDP Consumption:Disposable income,Wealth,Consumer expectation,Interest Rent Investment:interest rate,business expectations Government Purchase Net Exports:foreign incomes,exchange rate

14. Aggregate Supply Aggregate Supply: the relationship between price level and real output in the economy Aggregate Supply Curve : The slope of the total supply curve is upward sloping

15. Factors that can change in Aggregate Supply Curve In Short run(potential output stays constant) : -Input price 0 750 775 800 900 40 80 120 160 240 Aggregate Supply Curve Real GDP (2007 $ billions) Price Level (GDP deflator, 1997 = 100) 200 850 825 a b c d AS Potential Output

16. Factors that can change in Aggregate Supply Curve In Long run(potential output is variable): -Resources supplies -Productivity -Government policies 0 650 675 700 800 40 80 120 160 240 Aggregate Supply Curve Real GDP (1993 $ billions) Price Level (GDP deflator, 1997 = 100) 200 750 725 New Potential Output Original Potential Output AS 0 AS 1

17. Shifting to Rightward In short run: - a fall in wages - a fall in raw material prices In Long run: - more labour supply,capital stock,land,entrepreneurship - an increase in productivity - lower taxes - less government regulation

18. Shifting to leftward In Short run: -a rise in wages -a rise in raw material prices In Long run: - less labour supply,capital stock,land,entrepreneurship - a decrease in productivity - higher taxes - more government regulation

19. Part 3 Aggregate Demand and Supply

20. Aggregate Demand and Supply - Inventory Changes - Results of an inventory increase - Results of an inventory decrease - The role of unplanned investment

21. Injections and withdrawals - Investment and Saving - Government purchases and taxes - Exports and Imports - Total injections and withdrawals

22. Recessionary Gaps Recessionary Gaps Inflationary Gaps Inflationary Gaps Equilibrium versus Potential Output

23. Labour productivity

24. Business cycles

25. Definitions Expansion : A sustained rise in the real output of an economy Contraction : A sustained fall in the real output of an economy Business cycle : The cycle of expansions and contractions in the economy Peak : The point in the business cycle at which real output is at its highest

26. Effects of a contraction Recessions and Depressions Recessions : A decline in real output that lasts for six months or more Depression : A particularly long and harsh period of reduced real output Trough : The point in the business cycle at which real output is at its lowest

27. The highest output occurs at a peak in the business cycle. From this point, the economy contracts, so aggregate demand decreases. Consumer and business expectations magnify the downward trend. The lowest output occurs in a trough in a business cycle. From this point, the economy expands, so aggregate demand increases. Expectations magnify the upward trend.

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