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Robot Autos and where they can take us
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Brad Templeton Chicken, Chicken (and Premonition Organization) bradt@eff.org. Robot Autos and where they can take us. Robocars are coming. No more Sci-fi An issue of when, not if The staggering contentions for them Green, green, green, protected, sheltered, safe
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Brad Templeton Chicken, Chicken (& Foresight Institute) bradt@eff.org Robot Cars and where they can take us
Robocars are coming • No longer Science Fiction • A question of when, not if • The overwhelming arguments for them • Green, green, green, safe, safe, safe • The implications for mass transit
They're coming • DARPA Grand Challenge #1: Total failure • DARPA Grand Challenge #2: Five cars • Urban Challenge – 3 winners • Videos • Autonomous, not centrally controlled
Arguments For it Death toll, Death toll, Death toll And don’t forget the maiming! Geeks can save the planet
Accidents • Kill 45,000 in USA, 1M worldwide, injure far more • Cost 230 billion dollars (over 2% of GDP) • Every year we delay, another million die.
Congestion • Congestion wastes 4 to 8 billion hours, 6 billion gallons • Just timed lights improves city gas mileage 30% • Hours spent driving -- 50 billion, 10% of total working hours, 5% of waking
Infrastructure • Parking • Real Estate • Environment -- 25% of greenhouse gasses
Self Delivery Almost as important as self-driving
The Robotaxi And the WhistleCar
Cell phone summoned If what you need isn't close, something that is close takes you to it
Right Vehicle 10-mile electric trike to pickup truck to van to SUV to bus
Private cars for hire • Custom memory for your preferences • Your box of stuff, robot loaded
Parks itself, Charges or refuels itself • Parks more effeciently, even in driveways • Solves the battery problem • Allows experimental fuels with vastly less infrastructure
Special features • Gentle acceleration, constant speed • Gimbaled turns • Super-soft suspension
Infrastructure already in place (compare with PRT or other private ROWs)
The private individuals pay for it • No hugely expensive ROW needed • Already more capacity than needed
Almost every advantage transit has …including one it doesn’t actually have
Greener • Cars: 3500 btu/passenger-mile • Bus: Also 3500. Trolleybus: 3200 • Light rail: 1500 to 7000 • Heavy Rail: 2200 to 6000. NYC: 3300 • Electric Car: 500-700 • Lightweight electric trike: 300 • Cyclist: 145. Beefeater - about 6,000. • Pedestrian: 300. Beefeater - about 12,000
More advantages • No parking • No congestion • Read/Work • Don't need licence • Don't need to own a car • Cheap • Safer from accidents
Self parking car Lexus LS460-L
BMW 5 and 7Auto-spacing cruise control Audi, Volvo S80 Lane change warning Infiniti Lane departure prevention Mercedes Pre-Safe applies brakes before accident. Lexus pre-collision similar
Robovalet Garage (Home garage 5' high) Military use in parallel
Accident-avoiding car (somewhat negates death toll.)
Allowed on regular streets The lobbies…
Time for Apollo Project • A major leader, somewhere, must declare the charge. • Do it not because it’s easy but because it’s hard • May well happen in Japan, India or China first
All I have time for, but • Barriers • Downsides • Engineering Changes • Deliverbots • http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
Barriers • Law • Fear • Liability • Terrorists • Technology • Software reliability
Downsides • Health • Restructuring of cities, less walking • People taking longer trips, empty trips • Computer Intrusion and Mass Failure • Reworking of car culture • Privacy • Freedom • Jobs
Engineering Changes • Range not a factor • Acceleration and speed not a factor • Comfort much more of a factor, soft ride. • Want to be sharable • Different safety constraints • Small width, face-to-face
Deliverbots • In military, then on back streets • No need to own expensive, rarely used goods • Vast alteration of the nature of retail • Also changes, airports, farms etc.