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The Possibility of Zero GHG Emanation Autos

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  1. The Prospect of Zero GHG Emission Cars Prof. David R. Hodas Widener University School of Law Wilmington DE Journal of EnvironmentalLaw and Litigation Symposium: LIVING ON A FINITE EARTH: Energy Law and Policy for a New Era October 10, 2008 School of Law University of Oregon

  2. Vehicle weight vs.. acceleration • As engines become more efficient they have been used to increase acceleration and weight not increase fuel efficiency

  3. Transportation uses 70% of U.S. oil consumption • Last week (Oct 3) the U.S. imported (net of exports)12.9 million barrels of petroleum per day (gross imports were14 million)(this translates into > 4.7 billion bbls per year) • @$100/bll U.S the cost of these imports is about $1.29 billion per day or $470 billion per year. • U.S. consumes about 43% of the world’s gasoline (2003 data)

  4. In 2006 transportation in the U.S. cars account for 1.99 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions • Petroleum: 1.952 billion (gasoline’s share is 1.19 billion mt) • Electricity for transportation: 5.2 • Natural gas: 32.5 • U.S. electricity production from fossil fuels accounts for 2.344 billion tons of CO2 per year. • Together (3.534 billion mt), U.S. gasoline use and electricity generation comprise about 60% of U.S. CO2 emissions or just under 14% of global CO2 emissions

  5. Can we reduce CO2 from both electricity and transportation? • Only if we can shift to renewable sources of electricity • Renewable Electricity challenge: how to store it for use when needed? • Can Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) cars help meet the challenge?

  6. Plug-in Vehicles V2G Slides provided by Prof. Willett Kempton, University of Delaware

  7. Vehicle to Grid Arrows indicate direction of power flow

  8. V2G Basic Math • Average car driven 1 hour/day, thus, time parked is 23 hours/day; Daily average travel: 32 miles, storage for 100 - 250 miles • Practical power draw from car: 10 - 20 kW • US power: generation=978 GW; load=436 GW avg (EIA) • US 241 million cars (FHWA 2005) x 15 kW = 3,615 GW, thus... • Power of fleet is >3x generation; >8x load !

  9. Electric Markets • Initial markets (high value, low impact on battery, no system changes): • Regulation (“Frequency regulation”) • Spinning reserves • Intrahour adjustment • Larger but more challenging markets • Peak power • UPS for the distribution system

  10. Daily Load versus Regulation (=correction of ACE) ACE, Area Control Error, ~0.5% of control area load Grid operators send frequent signals to on-line generators (equipped with AGC) to either increase or decrease output. MW Aggregate Daily Load Curve Time of Day from Letendre et al 2006

  11. Average Annual Market Clearing Prices: Regulation January 30, 2008

  12. Average Annual Market Clearing Prices: Spinning Reserves

  13. Basic per Vehicle Values 10 –Year Present Value V2G Revenue Potential Assumptions: 80% availability, Reg. $40/MW-h, Spin. $10/MW-h, 7% discount rate, example calculations

  14. Vehicle Monitoring • Automated data collection while grid-connected and while driving • Power from grid to vehicle (-kW) and from vehicle to grid (+kW) • AGC regulation signal from PJM (+-kW) • State of charge (%) • Wind backup: wind output vs. modelled vehicle fleet charge/discharge

  15. EV/PHEV Design Tradeoffs • Batteries expensive; motor expensive • High line-current gives fast charge, roadside recharge; adds only moderate cost if done right • Regulation income directly proportional to line power! • Line power limits: • Size of plug, circuit, service • Energy/time = kWh/dispatch

  16. How many cars for an A/S contract? • PJM minimum A/S contract: 1 MW • CalISO minimum A/S contract: 1 MW • Assume 2/3 availability (1/3 unavailable because driving, battery at wrong SOC, etc • Calculation: 2/3 availability means ... ___ kW/car * ___ cars * 2/3 = ___ MW • for 1 MW at 15 kW, need 100 cars • for 1 MW at 1.5 kW, need 1000 cars

  17. Vision • One-half vehicle fleet is electric drive (BEV + PHEV). National security & environment benefits. • Lots of storage on the electric system, near loads. • Electric system storage is dispatchable by ISO/TSO and/or load serving entity. • Electric grid is more stable and reliable, A/S is abundant and less expensive • Intermittent renewables can be a much higher fraction of the generation mix.

  18. Legal and Policy Questions • How shift investment strategy in a deregulated electric system to renewable electricity linked to V2G • Infrastructure: parking lots, transmission capacity, distribution networks • Federal or state regulation? Link to climate change incentives, caps • Smart meter laws, aggregation design • Contract and business plan design, taxation, ownership, utility integration • Other potential issues?

  19. Mid-Atlantic Grid-Interactive Car Consortium • Partners • University of Delaware • PHI: Delmarva Power, Atlantic Electric, PEPCO, etc • ACUA • PJM • AC Propulsion • Comverge • Observers • Tesla Motors • • State of Delaware (DEDO, PSC, Energy Office) • anon