Time-Basic Choice Making - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Time-Basic Choice Making

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  1. Time-Critical Decision Making The Mars Express Experience

  2. The Presentation • Why study Mars Express? • Decision-making in Groups: Theory • Decision theory applied to Mars Express • Analysis and Discussion • Conclusions & Recommendations • Further Research Topics SpaceOps Montreal

  3. Research Objectives • Improve awareness of decision-theory • Understand the decision-process • Identify key decision-biasing factors • Methods to mitigate against these factors • Identify topics for further research • Complete my MBA thesis  SpaceOps Montreal

  4. The Mars Express Mission • First ESA flexi-mission procurement • Fast, Cheap and … in the Spotlight! • First ESA inter-planetary mission to fly (designed to be the second!) • Five Phases in one Mission • Mars Capture @ 02.51 UTC 25 Dec 03 • ... or rename the mission “Jupiter Express” SpaceOps Montreal

  5. Decisions: Rationality & Heuristics • Pre-program decisions in operations using procedures and mission rules • Minimise resources tied-up in decision-making • Rational intentions: real decisions • Compromised by imperfect knowledge, and… • Human emotion, preference and judgment • Coping with Complexity • Heuristics: “rules of thumb” = mental models • decision outcome based on assessments of probability are affected by judgmental bias SpaceOps Montreal

  6. Managing decisions in Groups • Factors due to Group decision-making • “Local rationalities” – group composition? • “Risky-shift” – diffusion of responsibility • Mobilization of bias – organization: culture and rules • Management factors • Uncertainty avoidance • Incrementalism • Avoid long-term irreversible decisions! SpaceOps Montreal

  7. Judgement under Uncertainty • Representativeness Heuristic • Tend to fit data to an existing mental model: “Law of Small numbers” • Availability Heuristic • Retrievability of similar instances • Bias of imaginability: conceivable event? • Adjustment and Anchoring • Insufficient correction when probability assessment based on an initial value SpaceOps Montreal

  8. Research Methodology • Time-critical decisions mostly correlated with spacecraft anomalies • Anomaly review (MRB) minutes used to assess how decisions might be affected by biasing factors • Identify key decision factors which affect the most decisions • Identify effective mitigating measures SpaceOps Montreal

  9. Key Decision Factors SpaceOps Montreal

  10. Analysis of Results • complex anomaly + critical decision =>more decision factors come into play • Analysis is limited to identifying which decision factors could affect the outcome • Each anomaly review assessed as one integrated decision • Mitigating methods present in decision process and formalization SpaceOps Montreal

  11. Mitigating Decision Risks • Group-decision effects: involvement, organizational culture, compromise! • Management: periodic decision reassessment, decision process formalism • Availability heuristic: data access • Representativeness: agency expert review of models and analysis • Adjustment/Anchoring: careful use of historical data, expert review SpaceOps Montreal

  12. Conclusions, Further Research • One irrational decision could end a mission: decision-bias factors are critical! • Organisational & management awareness of decision factors • “Lessons learned”: include decisions that were affected by bias-factors: how & why • Improve, refine mitigation of decision-bias • Comparison with other fields of decision making in operational contexts SpaceOps Montreal