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The Issue is Greater than the Loss of Assembling

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  1. The Problem is Bigger than the Loss of Manufacturing Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA exponentialimprovement.com6/26/07 (Modified 7/16/07)

  2. CO Mfg Has Lost 46,000 Jobs as of May 07 since April 98 Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  3. But CO Job Losses Are in Other High Pay Categories, Too • Telecom lost 22,100 jobs since Jan01 peak • IT lost 35,800 jobs since Jan01 peak • At their peaks there were 355,200 Mfg, Telecom & IT jobs • May 07: 251,300 jobs • Loss = 29.3% Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  4. Colorado Jobs • Jobs are recovering, but growing much slower than before. • Jobs are not keeping up with population growth • May 07 gap: 168,000 persons Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  5. It’s a National Problem • The “Trade Deficit” is exploding due to the “transfer of factors of production,” not trade. • The increase is very close to exponential(offset used to get best fit to an exponential function) :R2 = .976 (Goodness of Fit, Perfect = 1.00) Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  6. It’s a Serious National Problemand the Trend is Unsustainable Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  7. It’s a High Tech National Problem • There’s no “High Tech Salvation.” The Advanced Technology Products “Trade Balance” is negative & declining. +$40B to -$43B in 15 years Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  8. What to Do for “Trade” • Stop “free trade” (i.e., “lawless trade”) that’s really “transfer of the factors of production.” • Phase in over a number of years Warren Buffett’s “balanced trade” policies using his Import Certificates mechanism. • For explanations & recommendations see A Systems Thinking Perspective on Manufacturing & Trade Policy Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  9. What to Do for “Trade” (cont’d) • Eliminate NAFTA-type “trade policies” that, along with U.S. farm subsidies, are destroying the Mexican economy and causing illegal immigration. • It’s not an “illegal immigration” problem. It’s an “illegal employer” problem. • Pay a living wage for farm work; lots of people will do it: • Pay now: $0.40 / 32 lbs = $0.0125 / lb for tomatoesPicking 2 tons = 4000 lbs = $50.00/day.That's 1 1/4 cents / lb in wages. • Paying $500/day and increases the cost per poundof tomatoes to $0.125 / lb • That would mean the price of tomatoes would increase from $1.99 / lb to ~$2.10 / lb Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  10. What Else to Do?Stop “Reverse-Protectionism” • No corporate deferring tax payments on income indefinitely from foreign subsidiaries. • No tax loopholes, such as moving headquarters to a tax haven. • No R&D and other investment tax credits for companies that move manufacturing off shore ... the U.S. doesn't fully benefit. • No flawed transfer pricing schemes to avoid U.S. taxes • No allowing corporations to write-off the cost of shutting down a factory in the U.S. when it transfers the work to a a foreign country. • No allowing corporations to write-off the cost of bringing new foreign employees to the U.S. and requiring its U.S. employees, as their last duties before being fired, to train the foreign employees. • Include labor & environmental standards in trade pacts.The costs of environmental degradation and injuries to workers are externalized onto the public at large. Without standards, democracy is undermined: individuals don't value and "purchase" clean environment & workplace safety, governments do; if a government isn't a democracy, it doesn't represent the interests of its citizens. Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  11. Good News on “Trade” • From the Media Matters Report,“The Progressive Majority: Why a Conservative America is a Myth” • All 37 2006 Democratic House & Senate candidates won who promoted "fair trade" (not "free trade"); none lost. • Trade is a hot-button issueThe March 2007 NBC news/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 48% of Americans believe the U.S. is harmed by the global economy. Only 25% believe the U.S. benefits. • Note: The 48% is correct. Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  12. What Else to Do? Single Payer Health Insurance • To remove the cost from employers and make them more competitive. • To cut out the insurance-company middle-men bureaucracy. And UnitedHealth's William McGuire's cash-and-stock paydays that have topped $100 million in recent years -- and he still has stock options valued at $1.6 billion. • To overcome adverse selection (a market failure) and insure 46 million uninsured Americans (16%) including 8 million uninsured children (11%). Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  13. What to Do for Taxes • At this point in the “long wave” where capacity to provide supply exceeds demand, tax policy should promote demand, not investment. Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  14. What to Do for Taxes (cont’d) • Tax what we don’t want (e.g., pollution). • Greater taxes on wages discourages work (i.e., greater than on capital gains, dividends, & interest). • Don’t use sales taxes … discourages the sale of goods; promotes wealth inequality because it puts “resistance” in the “transfer circuit.” • Have a progressive tax system to overcome “path dependence”, also known as “Success to the Successful.” Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  15. What to Do for Taxes (cont’d) • The Orwellian-named “Fair Tax” is really a massive and enormously regressive “sales tax.” • A 23% tax-inclusive rate = 30% tax-exclusive rate. • The Treasury Department concluded that using the retail sales tax to replace only the income tax and provide a cash grant for low incomes would require at least a 34% tax-exclusive rate. • A 2000 study conducted by the Congressional Joint Tax Committee (JTC) 36% in order to achieve long-term revenue neutrality. A 36% tax-inclusive rate is a 56% exclusive tax rate. • "Fair Tax" proponents assume there will be no cheating … no black market tax evasion in a retail sales tax. Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com

  16. The Fair Tax Proponents • John Linder (R-GA) and Neal Boortz' co-authored the “Fair Tax” plan. • Lest anyone think Boortz & Linder understand the economy, here’s Linder’s position on “trade” on his website:“America must return to our tradition of global leadership for expanded free trade, and not retreat into the mistaken protectionism of the past. We must work to open markets, eliminate tariffs and barriers, and ensure that our nation remains at the forefront of global economic success.” Bob Powell, Ph.D., MBA, exponentialimprovement.com