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Jim Dim Talk at College of Tokyo

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  1. Jim GrayTalk at University of Tokyo • Personal views on PITAC report: invest in long term research • Preview of Turing lecture: 10 long term research problems • Bush: Summarize info in cyberspace • Turing: Intelligent Computers • 7 9s: build systems that are always up and prove it. • 5-Minute rule • For disks • For tapes • Sorting Progress • PennySort • Terabyte Sort (!) • Slides will be at http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks

  2. Presidential Advisory Committee onHigh Performance Computing and Communications,Information Technologies, and the Next Generation InternetInformation Technology http://www.ccic.gov/ac/interim/ or http://research.microsoft.com/~Gray/papers/PITAC_Interim_Report_8_98.doc

  3. Charter for the Committee:provide an independent assessment of • High-Performance Computing and Communications (HPCC) • Progress • Balance among research components; • Next Generation Internet initiative; • Progress • Balance • IT Research and development • Maintain United States leadership in • IT and • Applications

  4. Committee Members • Co-Chairs: • Bill Joy, Sun Microsystems • Ken Kennedy, Rice University • Members: • Eric Benhamou, 3Com • Vinton Cerf, MCI • Ching-chih Chen, Simmons • David Cooper, LLNL • Steve Dorfman, Hughes • David Dorman, PointCast • Bob Ewald, SGI • David Farber, U. of Pennsylvania • Sherri Fuller, U. of Washington • Hector Garcia-Molina, Stanford • Susan Graham, UC Berkeley • Jim Gray, Microsoft • Danny Hillis, Disney, Inc • John Miller, Montana State Univ. • David Nagel, AT&T • Raj Reddy, Carnegie Mellon • Ted Shortliffe, Stanford • Larry Smarr, U. of Illinois @ UC • Joe Thompson, Miss. State U. • Les Vadasz, Intel • Andy Viterbi, Qualcom • Steve Wallach, Centerpoint • Irving Wladawsky-Berger, IBM

  5. My Summary of the Report • 1/3 of the US economic growth since 1992 was in the IT sector. IT is key to our health, wealth, and safety. • Created 400 B$ of wealth in last 3 years (!!) • Federal IT research funding of twenty years ago, created the boom. • Federal IT research funding for the last decade has been flat (in constant dollars). • Research funding is increasingly near-term & applied development • The committee recommends Increase long-term research funding in: • Software design and implementation technologies • Technologies to scale the Next Generation Internet to 6 billion users. • Tools, algorithms, and systems for high-performance computing. • Spend a billion dollars over the next 5 years on Lewis and Clark style "expeditions" into cyberspace.

  6. Myths • Now that IT is a big business, Industry will do long term research. FACT: industry spends LITTLE on long-term research. it is not in their best interest • IT research = buy computers for scientists. FACT computer science research is different from the application of computers to some discipline.

  7. Research Priorities • Findings: • Total federal Information technology R&D investment is inadequate • Federal IT R&D is excessively focused on near-term problems • Recommendations: • Create a strategic initiative in long-term IT R&D • Increase the investment for research in software, scalable information infrastructure, high-end computing, and socio-economic and workforce impacts

  8. Software Research • Findings: • Demand for software far exceeds the nation’s ability to produce it • The nation depends on fragile software • Technologies to build reliable and secure software are inadequate • The nation is under-investing in fundamental software research • Recommendations: • Fund more fundamental research in software development methods and component technologies • Sponsor a national library of software components • Make software research a substantive component of every major IT research initiative • Support research in human-computer interfaces and interaction • Make fundamental software research an absolute priority

  9. Scalable Information Infrastructure • Findings: • The Internet has grown well beyond the intent of its original designers • Our nation’s dependence on the information infrastructure is increasing daily • We cannot safely extend what we currently know to more complex systems • Learning how to build large-scale, highly reliable and secure systems requires research • Recommendations: • Increase funding in research and development of core software and communications technologies aimed directly at the challenge of scaling the information infrastructure • Expand the Next Generation Internet test beds to include additional industry partnerships in order to foster the rapid commercialization and deployment of enabling technologies

  10. High-End Computing • Findings HEC is: • essential for science and engineering research • an element of the United States national security • ripe for new applications • suppliers suffer from unusual market pressures • Research& Development Recommendations • Fund innovative technologies and architectures • Fund HEC software (parallel programming) • Aim for a real application petaops by 2010 through a both hardware and software strategies • Fund HEC systems for science and engineering research

  11. Social, Economic, Workforce Recommendations • Expand research on the social and economic impacts of information technology diffusion and adoption • Expand initiatives to increase IT literacy, access and research capabilities • Address the shortage of high-technology workers • Programs to re-train “stale” IT workers • Encourage participation by women and minorities • Short-term increase in immigration of skilled IT workers

  12. Conclusions • IT is an essential foundation for commerce, education, health care, environmental stewardship, and national security: • Dramatically transform the way we communicate, learn, deal with information and conduct research • Transform the nature of work, nature of commerce, product design cycle, practice of health care, and the government itself • The total Federal IT R&D investment is inadequate • The Federal IT R&D is excessively focused on near-term problems • U. S. government must: • Create a strategic initiative in long-term IT R&D • Establish an effective structure for managing and coordinating IT

  13. Jim GrayTalk at University of Tokyo • Personal views on PITAC report: invest in long term research • Preview of Turing lecture: 10 long term research problems • Bush: Summarize info in cyberspace • Turing: Intelligent Computers • 7 9s: build systems that are always up and prove it. • 5-Minute rule • For disks • For tapes • Sorting Progress • PennySort • Terabyte Sort (!) • Slides will be at http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks

  14. Vanaveer Bush: Memex • Memex: Proposed putting all information online (1948) • It will happen • Result: InfoGlut. Too much information in the shoebox • Challenge: • Organize the information. • Give answers as good as an expert in the field. • Anticipate questions and so inform “subscriber” • Protect personal privacy • A hacker cannot get access to your personal information without your consent.

  15. Turing’s Test (1951): Intelligent Machines • Computers helped with the 4-color problem end game • Computers (and people) won world chess championship • Computers will likely be our 5th brain • Augment our intelligence • See for us, hear for us, read for us, • Prosthetic eyes, ears, voices, arms, legs,…. • Probably computers will be intelligent like plants and animals. • Perhaps computers can be intelligent like people • Pass the Turing Test (easy/impossible?) (70%, 5 minutes, B can lie) • Translating telephone (as good as a human translator) • Read a textbook and pass the written exam. • Pass a graduate programming class • Pass a graduate literature class • Radical: Download someone.

  16. Dependable Systems • Build a system used by millions of people each day. • Then: • Prove that it does what it is supposed to do (code matches spec). • Prove that it delivers 99.99999% (7 9s) availability (1 hr per millennium) • Prove that it cannot be “hacked” for less than 1B$ (Y2K $) • Then build the system automatically from the specification.

  17. Jim GrayTalk at University of Tokyo • Personal views on PITAC report: invest in long term research • Preview of Turing lecture: 10 long term research problems • Bush: Summarize info in cyberspace • Turing: Intelligent Computers • 7 9s: build systems that are always up and prove it. • 5-Minute rule • For disks • For tapes • Sorting Progress • PennySort • Terabyte Sort (!) • Slides will be at http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks

  18. Storage Hierarchy (9 levels) Cache 1, 2 Main (1, 2, 3 if nUMA). Disk (1 (cached), 2) Tape (1 (mounted), 2)

  19. Meta-Message: Technology Ratios Are Important • If everything gets faster & cheaper at the same rate THEN nothing really changes. • Things getting MUCH BETTER: • communication speed & cost 1,000x • processor speed & cost 100x • storage size & cost 100x • Things staying about the same • speed of light (more or less constant) • people (10x more expensive) • storage speed (only 10x better)

  20. 15 4 10 10 12 2 10 10 9 0 10 10 6 -2 10 10 3 -4 10 10 Today’s Storage Hierarchy : Speed & Capacity vs Cost Tradeoffs Size vs Speed Price vs Speed Cache Nearline Tape Offline Main Tape Disc Secondary Online Online $/MB Secondary Tape Tape Disc Typical System (bytes) Main Offline Nearline Tape Tape Cache -9 -6 -3 0 3 -9 -6 -3 0 3 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Access Time (seconds) Access Time (seconds)

  21. Storage Ratios Changed • 10x better access time • 10x more bandwidth • 4,000x lower media price • DRAM/DISK 100:1 to 10:10 to 50:1

  22. M$: cost of a RAM page RAM $/MB PageSize x Lifetime A$: cost of a disk access Disk Price AccessesPerSec x Lifetime RI: Reference Interval time between accesses to page Disk access cost A$/RI M$= A$/RI M$ Cost of a RAM page The 5 Minute Rule Derived $ Breakeven: M$ = A$ / Reference Interval Reference Interval = M$/A$ = DiskPrice x PageSize RAMprice x AccPerSec Reference Interval =Time

  23. The Five Minute Rule Observations • Break even has two terms: (2) Economic term: DiskPrice / RAM_MB_Price ~ 400:4 = 100:1 (1) Technology term: PageSize / DiskAccPerSec ~ 8KB : 80 = 100:1 • Economic term trends down • Technology term trends up to compensate. • Still at 5 minute for random, 1 minute sequential

  24. Shows Best Page Index Page Size ~16KB

  25. Standard Storage Metrics • Capacity: • RAM: MB and $/MB: today at 10MB & 100$/MB • Disk: GB and $/GB: today at 10 GB and 200$/GB • Tape: TB and $/TB: today at .1TB and 25k$/TB (nearline) • Access time (latency) • RAM: 100 ns • Disk: 10 ms • Tape: 30 second pick, 30 second position • Transfer rate • RAM: 1 GB/s • Disk: 5 MB/s - - - Arrays can go to 1GB/s • Tape: 5 MB/s - - - striping is problematic

  26. New Storage Metrics: Kaps, Maps, SCAN? • Kaps:How many KB objects served per second • The file server, transaction processing metric • This is the OLD metric. • Maps:How many MB objects served per sec • The Multi-Media metric • SCAN: How long to scan all the data • The data mining and utility metric • And • Kaps/$, Maps/$, TBscan/$

  27. For the Record (good 1998 devices packaged in systemhttp://www.tpc.org/results/individual_results/Dell/dell.6100.9801.es.pdf) X 14

  28. For the Record (good 1998 devices packaged in systemhttp://www.tpc.org/results/individual_results/Dell/dell.6100.9801.es.pdf) X 14

  29. How To Get Lots of Maps, SCANs • parallelism: use many little devices in parallel • Beware of the media myth • Beware of the access time myth At 10 MB/s: 1.2 days to scan 1,000 x parallel: 100 seconds SCAN. Parallelism: divide a big problem into many smaller ones to be solved in parallel.

  30. The Disk Farm On a Card The 1 TB disc card An array of discs Can be used as 100 discs 1 striped disc 10 Fault Tolerant discs ....etc LOTS of accesses/second bandwidth 14" • Life is cheap, its the accessories that cost ya. • Processors are cheap, it’s the peripherals that cost ya • (a 10k$ disc card).

  31. Tape Farms for Tertiary StorageNot Mainframe Silos 100 robots 1M$ 50TB 50$/GB 3K Maps 10K$ robot 14 tapes 27 hr Scan 500 GB 5 MB/s 20$/GB Scan in 27 hours. many independent tape robots (like a disc farm) 30 Maps

  32. Tape & Optical: Beware of the Media Myth Optical is cheap: 200 $/platter 2 GB/platter => 100$/GB (2x cheaper than disc) Tape is cheap: 30 $/tape 20 GB/tape => 1.5 $/GB (100x cheaper than disc).

  33. Tape & Optical Reality: Media is 10% of System Cost • Tape needs a robot (10 k$ ... 3 m$ ) • 10 ... 1000 tapes (at 20GB each) => 20$/GB ... 200$/GB • (1x…10x cheaper than disc) • Optical needs a robot (100 k$ ) • 100 platters = 200GB ( TODAY ) => 400 $/GB • ( more expensive than mag disc ) • Robots have poor access times • Not good for Library of Congress (25TB) • Data motel: data checks in but it never checks out!

  34. The Access Time Myth The Myth: seek or pick time dominates The reality: (1) Queuing dominates (2) Transfer dominates BLOBs (3) Disk seeks often short Implication: many cheap servers better than one fast expensive server • shorter queues • parallel transfer • lower cost/access and cost/byte This is now obvious for disk arrays This will be obvious for tape arrays

  35. Jim GrayTalk at University of Tokyo • Personal views on PITAC report: invest in long term research • Preview of Turing lecture: 10 long term research problems • Bush: Summarize info in cyberspace • Turing: Intelligent Computers • 7 9s: build systems that are always up and prove it. • 5-Minute rule • For disks • For tapes • Sorting Progress • PennySort • Terabyte Sort (!) • Slides will be at http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks

  36. Penny Sort Ground Ruleshttp://research.microsoft.com/barc/SortBenchmark • How much can you sort for a penny. • Hardware and Software cost • Depreciated over 3 years • 1M$ system gets about 1 second, • 1K$ system gets about 1,000 seconds. • Time (seconds) = SystemPrice ($) / 946,080 • Input and output are disk resident • Input is • 100-byte records (random data) • key is first 10 bytes. • Must create output file and fill with sorted version of input file. • Daytona (product) and Indy (special) categories

  37. PennySort • Hardware • 266 Mhz Intel PPro • 64 MB SDRAM (10ns) • Dual Fujitsu DMA 3.2GB EIDE disks • Software • NT workstation 4.3 • NT 5 sort • Performance • sort 15 M 100-byte records (~1.5 GB) • Disk to disk • elapsed time 820 sec • cpu time = 404 sec

  38. Sort Speed Doubles Every Year ? ?h ?

  39. Recent Results • NOW Sort: 9 GB on a cluster of 100 UltraSparcs in 1 minute • MilleniumSort: 16x Dell NT cluster: 100 MB in 1.8 Sec (Datamation) • Tandem/Sandia Sort: 68 CPU ServerNet 1 TB in 47 minutes • Rumor of IBM Sort: 7000 cpu Blue Pacific 1 TB in 1024 seconds (17 minutes). 10 Mrps (1GBps)

  40. Jim GrayTalk at University of Tokyo • Personal views on PITAC report: invest in long term research • Preview of Turing lecture: 10 long term research problems • Bush: Summarize info in cyberspace • Turing: Intelligent Computers • 7 9s: build systems that are always up and prove it. • 5-Minute rule • For disks • For tapes • Sorting Progress • PennySort • Terabyte Sort (!) • Slides will be at http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks