Section 6: Knowledge-based Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Section 6: Knowledge-based Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence

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  1. Chapter 6: Knowledge-based Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence • Managerial Decision Makers are Knowledge Workers • They Use Knowledge in Decision Making • Issue: Accessibility to Knowledge • Knowledge-Based Decision Support Through Applied Artificial Intelligence Tools Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  2. 6.1 Opening Vignette: A Knowledge-based DSS in a Chinese Chemical Plant • The Problem • Dalian Dyestuff plant • Managers determined own production plans • The Solution • DSS with a knowledge-base component Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  3. Subsystems • Production Planning • Accounting and Cost Control • Financing and Budgeting • Inventory and Material Management Control • Information Services • LP-based production planning model in model base • Two Expert Systems (ES) to • Plan monthly production and • Analyze working capital Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  4. The Expert System • Generates a proposed plan • Models the working capital Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  5. ES Advantages • Combines quantitative and qualitative analysis • Provides flexibility and adaptability • Involved decision makers • Allows better and more efficient decisions • Increased profit by more than $1 million / year (about a 10% increase) • Allows users to express preferences and expertise • Improves service to customers • Improved the competitive position of the plant Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  6. 6.2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  7. AI Concepts and Definitions • Encompasses Many Definitions • AI Involves Studying Human Thought Processes (to Understand What Intelligence Is) • AI Deals with Representing Thought Processes on Machines Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  8. Artificial Intelligence • Artificial intelligence is behavior by a machine that, if performed by a human being, would be called intelligent (well-publicized) • "Artificial Intelligence is the study of how to make computers do things at which, at the moment, people are better" (Rich and Knight [1991]) • AI is basically a theory of how the human mind works (Mark Fox) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  9. Objectives of Artificial Intelligence (Winston and Prendergast [1984]) • Make machines smarter (primary goal) • Understand what intelligence is (Nobel Laureate purpose) • Make machines more useful (entrepreneurial purpose) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  10. Signs of Intelligence • Learn or understand from experience • Make sense out of ambiguous or contradictory messages • Respond quickly and successfully to new situations • Use reasoning to solve problems (Continued on next page) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  11. Signs of Intelligence (cont’d) • Deal with perplexing situations • Understand and Infer in ordinary, rational ways • Apply knowledge to manipulate the environment • Think and reason • Recognize the relative importance of different elements in a situation Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  12. Turing Test for Intelligence A computer can be considered to be smart only when a human interviewer, “conversing” with both an unseen human being and an unseen computer, could not determine which is which Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  13. Symbolic Processing • Use Symbols to Represent Problem Concepts • Apply Various Strategies and Rules to Manipulate these Concepts Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  14. AI: Represents Knowledge as Sets of Symbols A symbolis a string of characters that stands for some real-world concept Examples • Product • Defendant • 0.8 • Chocolate Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  15. Symbol Structures (Relationships) • (DEFECTIVE product) • (LEASED-BY product defendant) • (EQUAL (LIABILITY defendant) 0.8) • tastes_good (chocolate). Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  16. AI Programs Manipulate Symbols to Solve Problems • Symbols and Symbol Structures Form Knowledge Representation • Artificial intelligence is the Branch of Computer Science Dealing Primarily with Symbolic, Nonalgorithmic Methods of Problem Solving Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  17. Characteristics of Artificial Intelligence • Numeric versus Symbolic • Algorithmic versus Nonalgorithmic Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  18. Heuristic Methods for Processing Information • Search • Inferencing Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  19. Reasoning - Inferencing from Facts and Rules using heuristics or other search approaches Pattern Matching Attempt to describe objects, events, or processes in terms of their qualitative features and logical and computational relationships Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  20. 6.3 Artificial Intelligence versus Natural Intelligence Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  21. Commercial Advantages of AI Over Natural Intelligence • AI is more permanent • AI offers ease of duplication and dissemination • AI can be less expensive • AI is consistent and thorough • AI can be documented • AI can execute certain tasks much faster than a human can • AI can perform certain tasks better than many or even most people Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  22. Natural Intelligence Advantages over AI • Natural intelligence is creative • People use sensory experience directly • Can use a widecontext of experience in different situations AI - Very Narrow Focus Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  23. Information Processing • Computers can collect and process information efficiently • People instinctively • Recognize relationships between things • Sense qualities • Spot patterns that explain relationships • BUT, AI technologies can provide significant improvement in productivity and quality Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  24. 6.4 Knowledge in Artificial Intelligence Knowledge encompasses the implicit and explicit restrictions placed upon objects (entities), operations, and relationships along with general and specific heuristics and inference procedures involved in the situation being modeled Of data, information, and knowledge, KNOWLEDGE is most abstract and in the smallest quantity Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  25. Uses of Knowledge • Knowledge consists of facts, concepts, theories, heuristic methods, procedures, and relationships • Knowledge is also information organized and analyzed for understanding and applicable to problem solving or decision making • Knowledge base - the collection of knowledge related to a problem (or opportunity) used in an AI system • Typically limited in some specific, usually narrow, subject area or domain • The narrow domain of knowledge, and that an AI system must involve some qualitative aspects of decision making (critical for AI application success) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  26. Knowledge Bases • Search the Knowledge Base for Relevant Facts and Relationships • Reach One or More Alternative Solutions to a Problem • Augments the User (Typically a Novice) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  27. 6.5 How Artificial Intelligence Differs from Conventional Computing Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  28. Conventional Computing • Based on an Algorithm(Step-by-Step Procedure) • Mathematical Formula or Sequential Procedure • Converted into a Computer Program • Uses Data (Numbers, Letters, Words) • Limited to Very Structured, Quantitative Applications (Table 6.1) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  29. Table 6.1: How Conventional Computers Process Data • Calculate • Perform Logic • Store • Retrieve • Translate • Sort • Edit • Make Structured Decisions • Monitor • Control Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  30. AI Computing • Based on symbolic representation and manipulation • A symbol is a letter, word, or number represents objects, processes, and their relationships • Objects can be people, things, ideas, concepts, events, or statements of fact • Create a symbolic knowledge base Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  31. AI Computing (cont’d) • Uses various processes to manipulate the symbols to generate advice or a recommendation • AI reasons or infers with the knowledge base by search and pattern matching • Hunts for answers (Algorithms often used in search) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  32. AI Computing (cont’d) • Caution: AI is NOT magic • AI is a unique approach to programming computers (Table 6.2) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  33. Table 6.2: Artificial Intelligence vs. Conventional Programming Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  34. 6.6 Does a Computer Really Think? • WHY? • WHY NOT? • Dreyfus and Dreyfus [1988] say NO! • The Human Mind is Very Complex Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  35. AI Methods are Valuable • Models of how we think • Methods to apply our intelligence • Can make computers easier to use • Can make more knowledge available to the masses • Simulate parts of the human mind Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  36. 6.7 The Artificial Intelligence Field • Involves Many Different Sciences and Technologies • Linguistics • Psychology • Philosophy • Computer Science • Electrical Engineering • Hardware and Software Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  37. (More) • Mechanics • Hydraulics • Physics • Optics • Others • Commercial, Government and Military Organizations Involved Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  38. Lately • Management and Organization Theory • Chemistry • Physics • Statistics • Mathematics • Management Science • Management Information Systems Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  39. Artificial Intelligence • AI is a Science and a Technology • Growing Commercial Technologies Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  40. Major AI Areas • Expert Systems • Natural Language Processing • Speech Understanding • Fuzzy Logic • Robotics and Sensory Systems • Computer Vision and Scene Recognition • Intelligent Computer-Aided Instruction • Machine Learning (Neural Computing) (Figure 6.3) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  41. Expert Systems • Attempt to Imitate Expert Reasoning Processes and Knowledge in Solving Specific Problems • Most Popular Applied AI Technology • Enhance Productivity • Augment Work Forces • Narrow Problem-Solving Areas or Tasks Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  42. Human Expert Characteristics • Solve problems quickly and accurately • Explain what (and how) they do • Judge own conclusions • Know when stumped • Communicate with other experts • Learn • Transfer knowledge • Use tools to support decisions • Knowledge is a major resource • Important to capture knowledge from a few experts • Experts become unavailable -> knowledge not available • Better than books and manuals Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  43. Expert Systems • Provide Direct Application of Expertise • Expert Systems Do Not Replace Experts, But • Makes their Knowledge and Experience More Widely Available • Permits Non Experts to Work Better Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  44. Expert Systems Software Development Packages • Resolve (was EXSYS) • K-Vision • KnowledgePro Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  45. Natural Language Processing • Can Communicate with the Computer in a Native Language • Conversational Interface • Limited Success Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  46. Natural Language Processing (NLP) • Natural Language Understanding • Natural Language Generation Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  47. Speech (Voice) Understanding • Recognition and Understanding by a Computer of Spoken Language Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  48. Robotics and Sensory Systems • Sensory Systems • Vision Systems • Tactile Systems • Signal Processing Systems • Plus AI = Robotics Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  49. Robot An Electromechanical Device that Can be Programmed to Perform Manual Tasks Mars Rover: The AI Laboratory at MIT: http://www.ai.mit.edu Dante II: Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University: http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ

  50. Robot "a reprogrammable multifunctional manipulator designed to move materials, parts, tools, or specialized devices through variable programmed motions for the performance of a variety of tasks." Photo: Wheelesly, a Robotic Wheelchair: The AI Laboratory at MIT: http://www.ai.mit.edu Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson Copyright 1998, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ