Show Me the MoneyorThe Dollars and Cents of Planning A Presentation to the Marin County Economic Commission February 20, 2001
It Guides Land Use Decisions For example: • Economic and market analysis provides a foundation for deciding on how much land should be designated for different types of uses. • Market analysis informs thinking about which locations are best for different uses.
It Guides Development Policies For example: • Real estate feasibility analysis provides a reality check on the effects of zoning and fee requirements, as well as design standards.
It Informs Service Planning For example: • Fiscal analysishelps anticipate future spending obligations as well as constraints on the provision of public services.
It Informs Financial Planning • Fiscal analysis helps anticipate revenue shortfalls and informs the need to identify new revenue sources. • Financial analysis helps formulate funding strategies for new facilities and infrastructure, and for revitalization.
Five Ways to Look at Money • Economic Analysis • Market Analysis • Real Estate Feasibility • Fiscal Analysis • Financial Analysis
Economic Analysis • Focus: • Conditions in the private sector economy • Jobs and incomes • Key Concepts: • Demand for land vs. supply of land (sites) • Basic (export) economic activity vs. local-serving economic activity • Multiplier effect
Getting Answers: Economics • How much land should we allow for different types of employment-based activity? • How much land should we allow for different types of housing? • Economic Background Studies
What types of jobs should we seek? Are some types of jobs better than others? • If we seek additional employment, what can we do to attract it? • If we lose employment, what can we do to respond? • Economic Development Strategy
What is the potential effect of a proposed planning or development action on existing jobs and incomes? On future potential for jobs and incomes? • Is it growth-inducing? • Economic Impact Analysis
Market Analysis • Focus: Conditions in the private sector economy. • Key Concepts: • Supply vs. Demand • Comparative Advantages and Disadvantages
Getting Answers: Market • How much demand is there for existing or new development of various types? • Does this site have the locational, physical and financial characteristics that will enable it to compete successfully for that demand?
Why hasn’t commercial and industrial development already occurred on sites that were designated for those uses in the General Plan? • Market Analysis
Real Estate Feasibility Analysis • Focus: • Conditions in the private sector economy. • Key Concepts: • Production costs: land, labor, and capital and processing costs, fees, and exactions • Obtainable rents and/or sales prices • Return on investment
Getting Answers: Feasibility The Private Sector Perspective • Will current rents/sales prices support new development, given production costs? • Are rents/sales prices expected to increase in the future? • When should I sell to maximize my return? • Development Feasibility Analysis
The Public Sector Perspective • How can planning actions or development standards affect the feasibility of different uses? • Permitted uses • Density, height limits • Parking requirements • Setbacks, landscaping requirements
How does infrastructure availability affect development feasibility? • How do processing costs, fees, and exactions affect the feasibility of development? • Development Feasibility Analysis
Fiscal Analysis • Focus: Conditions in the public treasury. • Key Concepts: • Revenues vs. costs • Capital (one-time) vs. operating (ongoing) • Separate jurisdictions with separate budgets
Getting Answers: Fiscal • Does new development pay its own way? • Should we allow new development only if it would pay its own way? • Are funds available to pay for new services or facilities that are needed to serve existing and future development?
Should planning and development decisions be constrained by current and/or projected fiscal conditions? • Fiscal Analysis
Financial Analysis • Focus: Paying for public capital improvements • Key Concepts: • General vs. Special Benefit • Benefits vs. Costs • Affordability • Payment Strategies: Cash vs. Debt Financing • Debt to Value Ratio
Financing Strategies • Redevelopment • Mello-Roos • Landscaping and Lighting Districts • Special Assessment Districts • Parcel Taxes • Special Taxes (non-land-based) • General Taxes
Getting Answers: Financing • How big will the assessment be? • Can the landowners (or tenants) afford it? By what percent would the assessment increase existing property taxes or rents? • Financial feasibility
Who is most likely to vote in favor of an assessment? Assessment district: landowners vote. Mello-Roos Community Facilities District: residents vote. • Political feasibility
Can the City (or County) afford to forego revenues that would go to the General Fund (for general benefit services) in order to pay for redevelopment/revitalization activities and projects? • Fiscal feasibility
What are the concerns of the Economic Element? • Number of new jobs • Incomes associated with new jobs (Economic Analysis)
Amount and locations of economic development • Demand for and supply of developable land • Effects of regulation and fees on development feasibility (Market Analysis)
Effects of housing availability and price on feasibility of economic development • Effects of infrastructure capacity on feasibility of economic development (Real Estate Feasibility Analysis)
Impacts of development on annual revenues and costs • Ability to pay for capital improvements and facilities (Fiscal and Financing Analysis)
How will the Economic Element fit into the General Plan? • What is the role of the Economic Element as distinct from the Land Use Element and other elements? • How can we assure that the Economic Element is mutually consistent with and supportive of the other elements, especially including the mandatory elements (e.g., Land Use)?
What is the geographic purview of the Economic Element? • Countywide? • Unincorporated area only? • What trade-offs will be required to arrive at agreement about economic and other priorities?
How might economic and other interests in the County complement each other? • What is the role of the public sector as distinct from the private sector? • Remove obstacles to economic development? • Encourage new economic development? • Other?