Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Russia & Oil: Risks for the World Economy Jeff Schubert Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Sydney, 2 July, 2004 (This presentation is designed to follow that of Prof. Saikal on Iraq and Saudi Arabia)
Russia Oil: production of 9m bpd; crude exports 5m bpd, products exports 2m bpd • World Bank estimates oil sector contributes 18% of GDP Main “privatised” oil “companies” are Yukos, Likoil, Sibneft, Tyuman, Surgetneftgas etc • Khodorkovsky (majority owner of Yukos) in jail on fraud and tax evasion charges Putin & Co clearly trying to bring oil producers under tighter Govt. control, in order to: • Limit power of oil “oligarchs” • Boost revenues to Govt coffers Oil pipeline export capacity of 4m bpd (rest exported by rail): • Controlled by Govt owned Transneft which wants to maintain virtual monopoly • Many in Govt not want “private” pipelines, although not all Foreign investment (FI) so far very limited • And any surge in FI unliklely soon Russian oil is and will not be a substitute for Saudi (and Iraqi?) oil
Oil Supply & Demand Earlier table showed present world oil supply at about 81m bpd World oil demand is about 81m bpd, of which: • US 20m bpd (11m bpd, or 55%, imported) • Rest of OECD 29m bpd • China 6m bpd (3m bpd imported) • Rest of World 26m bpd (Persian Gulf supply equal to 27% of demand) US DoE estimates world oil demand of 89m bpd in 2010, of which • US 23m bpd (13m bpd, or 58%, imported; and expected to reach 70% by 2025) • China 6.5m bpd (3m bpd imported) DoE assumes supply will rise to (surprise!) to 89m bpd in 2010, of which: • Saudi Arabia up to 13m bpd (and up to 22m bpd in 2025) • Iraq 3.7m bpd (and 6.6m bpd in 2025) • Persian Gulf 25m bpd (equal to 28% of demand; and expected to reach 35% in 2025) • US 9.5m bpd • Russia 10m bpd Doe assumes price of $US 25 per barrel in 2010
Oil Prices & World Economy Effect in 2004 of price being $US35/barrel rather than $US25 at start of 2004 and remaining there (according to IEA, OECD, IMF joint analysis)
US Expenditures in Iraq So far: • $US4.4bn per month, or about $US383,000 per soldier • total of $US95bn to end FY2004 Future: • CBO say $US56bn in FY2005 for present total theatre force of 160,000 • $US350,000 per soldier • CSBA says cost will be $300bn by end decade if present troop number constant until end 2005 and then reduced by 20/25% per year Perspectives: • 2004’s $70bn = 0.6% of GDP, 4% of federal spending • Direct cost of Vietnam was about $US590bn (in 2004 $’s) • 0.6% of Australia’s GDP would be about $A5bn
“Good, Bad & Ugly” The “Good” case: • Saudi Arabia: domestic stability; each year oil production increase each year to reach (say) 13m bpd in 2010 • Iraq: domestic stability; massive FI in oil sector; oil production reach (say) 3.7m bpd or more by 2010 • Russia: Khodorkovsky & Co left alone; FI in oil fields and pipe-lines • Oil prices: price falls as supply increase faster than demand • US Budget: fast withdrawal of US troops from Iraq; cost down to $US10bn per year by 2006 • GDP & Inflation: world growth remains good with little inflation rise • Interest rates: world rates up only a touch
“Good, Bad & Ugly” The “Ugly” case: • Saudi Arabia: domestic instability; oil exports fall • Iraq: domestic instability; oil exports less than Saddam era • Russia: very little FI; slow oil export growth • Oil prices: price rises as demand increase faster than supply • US Budget: troops in Iraq cost $US50bn per year for next 5 years • GDP & Inflation: would GDP growth be 2 percentage points less and inflation 2 percentage points higher than otherwise? • Interest rates: cash rates rise, but the big increase is in bond yields
“Good, Bad & Ugly” “Bad” is best bet: • “Good” needs unrealistic combination of favourable events • “Ugly” needs many unfavourable events But: • “Ugly” may be greater risk than “Good” • if Saudi and Iraq problems increase, there is little capacity in Russian oil or the US Budget to easily absorb long/large shocks US between a rock and a hard place: • needs guaranteed long-term access to Iraqi and/or Saudi oil • given the Iraq sunk-costs and Saudi risks, US will not readily surrender ultimate control in Iraq Prof. Saikal’s insights on Saudi Arabia and Iraq may thus best the best “economic” advice you will get for some time.