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Democratization in Asia

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  1. Democratization in Asia Causes, Processes, and Consequences

  2. Outline • 3rd wave of democratization • Causes • economic • cultural • Processes • Consequences • economy • security

  3. Waves of Democratization • ``A group of transitions from nondemocratic to democratic regimes that occur within a specified period of time and that significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period”

  4. The First Two Waves • A long and slow wave from 1828 to 1926 • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1922 to 1942 • A wave of democratization after World War II from 1943 to 1964 • A reverse wave of democratic breakdown from 1961 to 1975

  5. The Third Wave • Started in Portugal and Spain in mid-1970s • Spread to South America from late 1970s to early 1980s • Reached Asia in late 1980s • Surge of transitions in East Europe at end of 1980s • South Africa 1990

  6. The Third Wave

  7. Causes of Regime Change

  8. Economic Explanation? • Almost all rich countries have democratic institutions • Among the 64 ``low-income” countries classified by the World Bank, India is the only one in which democratic institutions have survived continuously for more than a decade

  9. Economic Variable • Economic development • dispersion of resources • economic pluralism • social pluralism • political pluralism

  10. Economic Variable • Economic development • middle class • demand for democracy • elite bargaining • political accommodation

  11. Economic Variable • Economic development • rising expectations • economic difficulties • popular discontent • regime crises

  12. Cultural Explanation? • Are Islam and the ``Asian values” obstacles to democracy?

  13. Support for Democracy • World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys • The following slide shows the percentage of respondents who said a democratic system is a ``very good” or ``fairly good” way of governing this country • Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually rank relatively high

  14. Support for Strong Leader • The following slide shows the percentage of respondents who said ``having a strong leader who does not have to bother with parliament and elections” would be ``very good” or ``fairly good” • Most Islamic and Pacific Asian countries actually have relatively low support for this authoritarian option

  15. Scenarios of Change • Preservation of authoritarian regime • Gradual transition to • authoritarian pluralism • Gradual and moderate liberalization • Gradual and moderate democratization • Radical transition toward • a new authoritarian regime • a democracy

  16. Regime Changes Non-democracy Preservation State Crises Regime Change Democracy Democracy Non-democracy

  17. Top-down Processes • From top down • Conflict of interest • Elite competition • Gradual transition • Problematic implications: • democratization is easy • skillful elite can establish democracy in any setting

  18. Bottom-up Processes • From bottom up • Popular demand • Political movement • Radical revolution

  19. Consequences • Does democracy promote economic growth? • Does democracy promote security?